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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's protracted campaign to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to host the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help speed up the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered close to the Russian leader. Several nations feared a conference obstructed from the top if his administration managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the best chance possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.